- Pathetic PlayBook sales that hint it will never have a viable tablet product.
- Big risks with the BlackBerry 10 launch, since even proponents will admit this OS is do-or-die.
- A currently unprofitable business.
- A massive run-up on sentiment, not fundamentals.
- The fact that Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone and products using Google‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android are steadily making inroads to enterprise business.
That’s my take, but I won’t waste any more time on it here.
… OK, just one more thing: All this “enthusiasm” lately is relative. Consider that a favorable headline lately was that Jeffries & Co. (NYSE:JEF) increased its outlook for BB10 … to just a 20% to 30% probability of success! Forgive me if I don’t take those odds.
But rather that assail you more with my views — my “slant,” if you will — I’d like to give you some of the choice comments this blog has received that represent the other side.
Here’s what the RIMM bulls have to say. Most of these comments are anecdotal, but I figure they are worth calling out for balance.
Tools vs. Toys
The author ought to visit the UK to see what is supposed to be a declining market for RIM. The young over here carry two phones. One will be Apple or Android but the other will definitely be a Blackberry and that is the one they use for actually making phone calls, sending texts and IM’s. Ask which they would give up and it won’t be the Blackberry. They are not buying new Blackberry’s because the build quality is so good that old ones suffice.
They are the market for the BB 10 and they are prepared to wait for it so they can then dump what they consider toys.
Don’t Count Out the Oldest OS
Critics who have bashed this company relentlessly for the past year have changed their tune with the new OS and are impressed, Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and other carriers are backing it and developers love it. 80 million users with the oldest smartphone OS, now you dont think they will sell with the most modern OS? What more evidence do you need to change your mind apple fanboy…your iphone is going to look like the old Blackberry in 6 months..
You are a moron! Blackberry has a loyal fan base. I have the blackberry bold 9900 and the iPhone 5. I carry my Blackberry everywhere and my iPhone I use for my internet business. I can’t wait for the Blackberry 10 qwerty phone! It gets the job done. I send 100’s of emails on the go every day. There’s no way my iPhone could handle sending those emails.
Apple Is Too Invasive
I use an iMac desktop and a Macbook pro. I don’t like the way Apple is trying to corral me to all their products or the mess them made with Iphoto to try and lock me in. I like will be purchasing a BB10 device. Do you think it’s sexy to be hog-tied by and to one company?
Best OS, Period
“…What’s the compelling reason to believe in RIMM stock? Do you really think the BB 10 OS will be good enough to contend with Apple and Google…” As someone in the computer field for 25 years, yes I do think it will be every bit as good or better. What are your qualifications to judge OSes?
No Improvements Elsewhere
Other than the same upgrade that ALL phone manufacturers make, Apple hasn’t really done anything to wow people for a while now. I use 2 phones. Guess which one is reliable and I trust with my business? Not my android. I wanted to grab one so I wouldn’t be biased. And guess what? It’s nice, but it freezes… crashes… and drops NOTICEABLY more calls. Once BB10 is introduced, I will be selling my galaxy for $200. I tried an iPhone as well, without prejudice, and it definitely didn’t wow me. I sold cell phones and half the morons that bought the Iphone had no idea what it did! It just goes to show, that you idiots, purchase the iPhone because you jumped on the band wagon. I am a financial advisor and I told a lot of my clients to invest in RIM when they were at $5.50. You do the math. Don’t give any advice if all of it is your own personal psychology without facts to back it up. Learn about business then start talking.
The Market Disagrees
You missed this one. Is it a just a short squeeze or is the new operating system simply a better technology. Developers like the new platform. Should help develop apps which until now was the biggest stumbling block for RIM.
Judge the Technology, Not the Sentiment
It really is good fun, all the bears with an internet connection bashing RIM for their money, even though they never even owned a handheld or playbook. The perception of BlackBerry by those who do not know the products is impressively far off. This is how bubbles develop, and it is also how stocks get heavily underrated. The market always catches up, and as always it is good to be ahead.
The Upgrade Wave Will Be Huge
You’re so wrong about RIM not seeing Apple & Android coming, but they had an aging OS that needed a fresh start. Few companies succeed at what RIM is about to accomplish, but RIM is doing it! RIM carefully chose a great path forward with QNX as the robust and proven platform, and now they’ve created a uniquely powerful user interface that is designed for the busy person juggling many different things… usually with only one hand on his phone! Yes, that would be me… and millions & millions like me! Success is in the cards, my friend. Millions of BlackBerry users are looking to upgrade to these BB10 devices — they’ve been patiently waiting. Sales will exceed expectations on the Street as not only will these phones be embraced by the 80+ million BlackBerry users worldwide, these phones will attract many of those users who have left for seemingly greener pastures, only to be disappointed. I know I will be upgrading early in February even if my contract ends next fall.
What Do You Think?
Share your thoughts and comments below and keep the conversation going. I remain convinced that buying Research In Motion right now is very risky amid the all-or-nothing BB10 launch, but what’s your investment strategy?
- Again, my original bearish slant on RIMM is here and here. (The Slant)
- Charles Sizemore, once a Research In Motion bull, has changed his tune. (InvestorPlace)
- 10 reasons to buy RIMM now. (Rapid Berry)
- A nod to xkcd for the cartoon. (xkcd)
Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com and the author of “The Frugal Investor’s Guide to Finding Great Stocks.” Write him at email@example.com or follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP. As of this writing, he owned a long position in AAPL.